History doesn’t often repeat itself but it often rhymes…
– Mark Twain
History provides a crucial foundation for understanding today’s increasingly complex world.
Considered as a classic of 20th-century literature, Joseph Heller’s 1961 novel Catch-22 comedically told the story of a WWII bombardier named Yossarian who desperately wanted to be declared insane so he could stop flying increasingly suicidal missions. The problem was “Catch-22.”
America is so deeply politically divided at its 250th birthday that it needs two separate and distinct celebrations on its opposite coasts on July 4th to celebrate this seminal holiday. But political schism does not disqualify what remains as a noteworthy achievement in longevity for this still young political experiment.
In 1831, a twenty-five year old French magistrate named Alexis de Tocqueville boarded a ship bound for America. He went, officially, to study the American prison system. But what he was really looking for was something far more personal and far more urgent as he was seeking answers and hope.
To say that American political life in 2026 under the Trump administration is unique may be an understatement for the ages and especially in the wake of a UFC fighting event that took place on White House grounds Sunday evening.
As America turns 250, patriotism has been diluted into loyalty tests and lawn-chair symbolism. Two and a half centuries ago it meant risking everything, for self-government, not for a slogan.
Nations still prepare brilliantly for the last war while the next one reinvents itself, drones in Ukraine and Iran, and the terrifying question of what nuclear powers do when conventional tools fail.
The easy parallel between the 1920s and our 2020s is economic and technological. The more important connection runs deeper and into the human conditions of fear, identity, and the habit of reaching for a scapegoat when the world changes too fast.
As this piece is written, President Trump is in Beijing. He arrived yesterday at Beijing Capital International Airport, where he was greeted not by Xi Jinping — as protocol and the president's own hype machine had suggested — but by a vice foreign minister and a vice president.
"Guns and Butter" economic worries from the 1960's that caused rampant inflation in the 1970's are back. But just as Mark Twain once said that "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" so goes today's economic policy mix that has now divided FOMC voting members, for good reason, on what to do next on monetary policy…
From Google Gemini's perspective it is important to know where one comes from because understanding one's own origins, acts as a rearview mirror that provides clarity for one's future path.